Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data. It is based on an additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly and weekly seasonality, plus holidays. It works best with daily periodicity data with at least one year of historical data. Prophet is robust to missing data, shifts in the trend, and large outliers.
Accurate and fast.
Prophet is used in many applications across Facebook for producing reliable forecasts for planning and goal setting. We’ve found it to perform better than any other approach in the majority of cases. We fit models in Stan so that you get forecasts in just a few seconds.
Get a reasonable forecast on messy data with no manual effort. Prophet is robust to outliers, missing data, and dramatic changes in your time series.
The Prophet procedure includes many possibilities for users to tweak and adjust forecasts. You can use human-interpretable parameters to improve your forecast by adding your domain knowledge.
Available in R or Python.
We’ve implemented the Prophet procedure in R and Python, but they share the same underlying Stan code for fitting. Use whatever language you’re comfortable with to get forecasts.